WHAT'S HAPPENING
IN THE INDUSTRY
New construction cooled off in May. The Census Bureau's latest report (released June 16) shows housing starts fell 15.4% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million, with single-family starts down slightly to 882,000. Building permits held roughly flat at 1.413 million, and single-family permits actually ticked up 0.6% — a sign builders are still lining up future work even as they pull back on breaking ground right now. Completions dropped too, down 8.1% from April and 14.2% year-over-year.
The bright spot is remodeling — up 0.9% for the month and 8.1% for the year.
Per NAHB, residential improvement spending was the only residential category to post a monthly gain. While new-home construction stalls, homeowners are clearly still spending on renovations, additions, and repairs.
Labor: a mixed bag
Construction job openings rose from 266,000 in April to 298,000 in May, per the latest JOLTS data, but NAHB notes that gain is being driven by nonresidential work (data centers, in particular) rather than housing — residential demand for labor is still soft. The layoff rate in construction also ticked up to 2.1%, while the quits rate fell to 1.3%, suggesting workers are hanging onto the jobs they have rather than jumping ship.
Materials: the headwind
Material costs remain the biggest headwind. Tariffs have pushed the effective rate on construction goods to a 40-year high of 25–30%, with steel up 13% and aluminum up 23% year-over-year. Overall material costs are up another 5–7% on top of already-elevated post-pandemic prices, and lumber rose 6.1% in Q1 alone (though it's still down 3.8% from a year ago).
Demand
Consumer confidence inched up as inflation fears eased slightly, but affordability concerns are still pushing new-home sales lower. NAR's chief economist is nonetheless optimistic about the back half of 2026, pointing to strong business investment in AI and data centers as a reason the broader economy should avoid recession.
New-build is soft, material costs are punishing, but remodeling and repair demand is quietly growing. Contractors who can flex toward renovation work — and who tighten up pricing discipline to survive thinner margins — are the ones positioned to have a good back half of the year.